TD Securities notes July payrolls surprised sharply to the downside, with headline jobs dragged by government hiring, while private employment stayed near breakeven. The firm expects July Retail Sales to post the first decline since January, aligning with softer labor data, though they still see overall economic activity as stable given mixed but expansionary ISM readings and robust Q2 underlying GDP growth. Labor softness and consumption slowdown“July payrolls surprised sharply to the downside on Friday, posting -23k job gains with negative revisions subtracting 103k jobs from May and June. Private job gains were 30k, with private sector hiring being overall in line with the breakeven rate this year. The July report essentially reflects monthly volatility amid longer-term stability.