Just over a year ago, Chinese ultra-fast-fashion retailer Shein began leasing 15ha of warehouse facilities – equivalent to 21 football pitches – near Ho Chi Minh City, part of a grand experiment to make Vietnam a major export base. When it was formulating those plans in late 2024, it seemed like a bet that, while risky, was worth making. US exemptions for duties on small parcels from China that underpinned its business model looked as if they would be abolished. Donald Trump had just been elected US president for a second term, and fears of a heightened trade war were soon realised, with US tariffs on many Chinese goods rocketing to 145 per cent by April 2025. Shein started encouraging its biggest Chinese suppliers to set up manufacturing bases in Vietnam.